Trump’s victory could mean US withdraws support for Ukraine in war with Russia

With the reelection of Donald Trump, Ukraine may soon have to adjust to a dramatic reduction in US support that could have a decisive impact on the war with Russia.

Throughout his campaign, the Republican president-elect and his running mate, JD Vance, have cast strong doubts on continued US commitment to Kyiv as the war drags on more than two and half years after Russian forces invaded. Moreover, Trump has made comments that suggest the US could pressure Ukraine into an uneasy truce with Russia.

Trump’s victory comes at a precarious moment in the conflict for Kyiv. Russia has steadily been making gains in the eastern Donbas region, which Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to capture in full.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a statement on Telegram on Saturday that the situation on the front line “remains difficult” and that certain areas “require constant renewal of resources of Ukrainian units.”

Meanwhile, Russia is understood to be bolstering its manpower with North Korean forces. As many as 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia’s Kursk region and are expected to enter combat against Ukraine in the coming days, US officials have warned.

Under the Biden administration, the US has provided tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, in the form of both weapons and budget assistance. The administration plans to continue to surge as much support as possible to Kyiv before Trump takes office.

Trump has repeatedly praised Putin – and repeatedly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom he has a complicated history. Trump’s efforts to leverage US military aid to Ukraine to force Zelensky to investigate the former president’s political rivals were the key focus of Trump’s first impeachment in 2019.

Zelensky congratulated Trump on Wednesday and said he appreciates Trump’s commitment to “peace through strength.”

“We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States,” Zelensky wrote in a social media post. “We are interested in developing mutually beneficial political and economic cooperation that will benefit both of our nations.”

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Ukraine-Russia war would not have started if he had been president. He has also vowed to end the war, sometimes even claiming he would stop the years-long conflict before taking office. In July, he said he could settle the conflict in one day.

In his September presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump refused to say he was committed to Ukraine defeating Russia. Later that month, he suggested that Ukraine should have “given up a little bit” to Moscow, saying at a campaign event that “any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now.”

“If they made a bad deal, it would have been much better. They would have given up a little a bit and everybody would be living,” Trump said.

Just days after those comments, when Trump met with Zelensky in New York City, he stressed that he would work to get a good deal for “both sides.”

“We have a very good relationship, and I also have a very good relationship, as you know, with President Putin. And I think if we win, we’re going to get it resolved very quickly,” Trump said.

“I think long before I, before January 20, before I would take the presidency – it’s January 20 – but long before that, I think that we can work out something that’s good for both sides. It’s time,” he added.

Zelensky has drawn up a “victory plan,” and has said Ukraine is not opposed to negotiations, but they must be from “a position of strength.” At a press conference in late October, the Ukrainian president said that “Trump talks a lot, but I didn’t hear him say he would reduce support for Ukraine.”

Zelensky said Wednesday that in their September meeting, he and Trump “discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

Still, in an interview with South Korea’s KBS, Zelensky acknowledged that “the next US president may strengthen or weaken support for Ukraine.”

“If that support weakens, Russia will seize more territory, it would prevent us from winning this war. That is the reality. Our stance isn’t about territorial compromises but exploring potential diplomatic paths that rely on the US maintaining its commitment. A genuine desire from the United States to end this war swiftly is crucial,” he said.

Ahead of the election, the US and its allies sought ways to “Trump-proof” that support. Earlier this year, NATO announced it would establish a mission to coordinate the provision of military equipment and training for Ukraine – an effort that has been largely led by the US. The Biden administration put forward $20 billion of the G7’s $50 billion loan package to Ukraine, which is also funded by frozen Russian assets.

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Donald Trump’s debate with Kamala Harris was in September.