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The B.C. Conservatives have inched ahead of the B.C. NDP among decided voters in the early days of the election campaign, based on a new Leger poll.
Support for the Conservatives is 45 per cent compared to 42 per cent for New Democrats, and 10 per cent for B.C. Greens. The online survey polled 1,001 British Columbians between Sept. 20 and 23.
“It’s been a dramatic 12-month rise for the Conservative Party,” said Steve Mossop, Leger’s executive vice-president in Western Canada.
Just a few months ago, polling indicated the governing NDP held a strong lead over its two centre-right party rivals.
“I don’t think anyone expected a change like this to happen as fast as it did,” said Mossop.
Mossop attributed the results to Rustad’s growing appeal among young and female voters, as well as the collapse of the B.C. United Party in early September and former Opposition Leader Kevin Falcon’s support for Rustad.
In the last week, Conservatives have surpassed the NDP as more popular with young voters.
Leger polls show an eight per cent growth in support from decided voters between ages 18 and 34 who plan on casting a ballot for the Conservatives, to 46 per cent, compared to NDP’s steady 43 per cent support among the same age group.
Among decided female voters of all ages, support for the Conservatives has climbed six per cent since Sept. 16, while those backing the NDP dropped two per cent.
“Traditionally, a right-wing party of their nature would typically attract the 55-plus age group at a much higher rate than the rest of the age groups, but Rustad has managed to strengthen public support for his party across all age groups,” Mossop said.
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However, the Leger poll suggests that the two-way election race is far from over.
Eby still holds a higher approval rating — at 45 per cent — than Rustad, who polled at 37 per cent, closer to B.C. Green leader Sonia Furstenau’s 34 per cent approval rating.
“More people think Eby is best suited to be premier,” said Mossop. “He remains in good standing with a bulk of B.C. voters.”
In addition, one in five voters in the province remain undecided less than a month before they cast their ballot. Mossop said these numbers are enough to tip the scales either way.
“It’s an unpredictable election outcome at this point,” he said. “The polls have been changing rapidly every week so every single vote will count.”
For most British Columbians polled in the last two weeks, their top three election issues have remained housing affordability followed by health care, rising interest rates and the economy.
However, voter priorities have shifted. Since the Bank of Canada announced that inflation rates had dropped two per cent in August, two per cent fewer British Columbians polled indicated rising interest rates as a top election issue.
“It puts the spotlight on more traditional issues outside of economics,” said Mossop, predicting that if inflation trends downward, issues such as crime, homelessness and the opioid crisis will take precedence for voters.
A poll this size would have a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
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